2000 – Dresden
- 6.00 - 7.00 pm: Welcome
- 7.30 - 10.30 pm: Semperoper
- from 8.00 pm: Dinner at Restaurant "Italienisches Dörfchen"
- 8.30 - 9.45 am: Peter Zweifel, "Contribute to an Improved Prediction of Probability of Loss." - Information About Multiple Risks in Insurance
Insurers traditionally use risk-specific characteristics of insurers to classify them according to risk. In this paper, the practical relevance of information about multiple risks is demonstrated for the case of contents insurance of a Swiss company. Two types of such information prove important: First, information about "spillover moral hazard" caused by mandated prevention on preventive effort in a unregulated line. Second, information about "common impulses" reflected in the loss experience of related lines. Both contribute to an improved prediction of probability of loss.
Discussants: G. Lang, M. Braulke
- 9.45 - 10.15 am: Coffee Break
- 10.15 - 11.30 am: Achim Wambach, "Competitive (insurance) markets under adverse selection and capacity constraints"
Ever since the seminal work by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) on competitive insurance markets under adverse selection equilibrium-non-existence problem has been one of the major puzzles in insurance economics. We extend the original analysis by considering firms which face capacity constraints due to limited capital. Two scenarios are considered, if the demand at any insurer exceeds the capacity: Either consumers are rationed, or they are served, but the ensurer faces a larger risk of bankruptcy. We show under mild assumptions that a pure strategy equilibrium exists, where every consumer buys his appropriate Rothschild-Stiglitz contract.
Discussants: W. Emons, H. Zink
- 11.30 - 12.45 am: Karl Morasch, "Decentralization of Industrial Policy as a Strategic Delegation"
Discussants: K. Ritzberger, N. Schulz
- 12.45 am - 2.15 pm: Lunch at Mensa
- 2.15 - 3.30 pm: Karl Aiginger, "Specialization and (Regional) Concentration of European Industry."
Discussants: M. Stadler, J. Weigand
- 3.30 - 4.00 pm: Coffee Break
- 4.00 - 5.15 pm: Helmut Bester, "Wages and Productivity Growth in a Competitive Industry" (H. Bester and E. Petrakis)
We describe the evolution of productivity growth in a competitive industry. The exogenous wage rate determines the firms' engagement in labour productivity enhancing process Innovation. There is a unique steady state of the industry dynamics, which is globally asymptotically stable. In the steady state, the number of active firms, their unit labour cost and supply depend on the growth rate but not on the level of the wage rate. In addition to providing comparative statics of the steady state, the paper characterizes the industry's adjustment path.
Discussants: U. Kamecke, M. Erlei
- 5.30 - 6.30 pm: General Assembly
- from 7.30 pm: Dinner at Restaurant "König Albert"
- 9.00 - 10.15 am: Dietmar Harhoff, "The Structure of Loan Contracts in Germany"
This paper develops a stylized model of loan contacts. Based on a stylized theoretical model in which firms and banks determine loan size, interest rates and the rate of collateralization, I estimate a system of equations derived from the first-order conditions of the constrained maximization problem. The data orginate from a recent detailed survey of 1509 small and medium-sized German firms. The results point to moral hazard problems in the loan market, while the evidence for adverse selection is relatively weak.
Discussants: D. Neuberger, J.P. Krahnen
- 10.15 - 10.45 am: Coffee Break
- 10.45 - 12.00 am: Jürgen Müller, "From State Administered to Pro-competitive Market Structure: Early Lessons from the Liberalization of the German Telecommunications Market" (Irene Asselborn and Jürgen Müller, FHW Berlin)
Discussants: D. Mueller, N. N.
- 12.00 am: Conclusion and end of meeting